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[real time news website] Views of the brokerage | The computer industry tracking report: attach importance to the macro -weak related SaaS leader valuation improvement opportunities

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  2024-01-02, Minsheng Securities released a research report in the computer industry, which pointed out that it attaches importance to the opportunity of macro-related SaaS leader valuation.

  The specific content of the report is as follows:

  The 10 -year US Treasury yield has declined significantly, and the US stock company SaaS has ushered in valuation reconstruction.Because of its unique development model, SaaS is more sensitive to the discount rate of market value.Since September 2021, US Treasury yields have continued to rise, and US stocks SaaS's valuation has been killed significantly.According to Meritech data, as of September 1, 2023, the overall valuation of SaaS in the United States has decreased by more than 60%compared with 2021, and the overall P/S valuation has been in the bottom range since 2015.Since November 2023, the 10 -year US Treasury yield has declined rapidly, and the US stock SaaS company has ushered in significant valuation repair. Shopify, Unipath, Twilio, Monday.com and other companies have rebounded significantly.2023.11.1 to 2023.12.29, SHOPIFY rose 65%, UNIPATH 60%, Twilio rose 48%, monday.com 44%, and Five9 rose 36%.We believe that the current core SaaS company is cost -effective, mainly based on: 1) From the valuation level: As of December 29, 2023, A shares and Hong Kong stock core SaaS Company in the past 7 years P/S averageThe above value near the standard deviation is 66.3%of the average value of the past 7 years, and the highest value of the highest value in 2021 is in a lower state;23H1/23Q3's performance has stepped out of the trough one after another, and the bottom is up.For example: Kingdee International achieved revenue of 2.62 billion yuan in the first half of 2023, a year -on -year 16.8%, and the bottom of the bottom.() 2023Q3 revenue of 2.338 billion yuan in a single quarter, an increase of 13.58%year -on -year; the single -quarter contract signed a contract of 2.22 billion yuan in the third quarter, an increase of 22.3%year -on -year.In the third quarter, the cloud business achieved 1.602 billion yuan, an increase of 28.4%year -on -year. The amount of new orders added by cloud subscriptions increased by 45%compared with the same period of the previous year.Multi -factor support, strong fundamentals are expected to continue.Core SaaS's strong main benefit: 1) Customers are mainly concentrated in large medium -sized enterprises, with high operating stability; 2) Shinchuang demand release: support of Xinchuang, some downstream core customers ushered in a wave of IT input period; 3) Raise market share: In recent years, relevant companies have further strengthened their own competitive advantages, and the market share is expected to continue to increase; 4) Core companies' strategic investment and transformation will gradually enter the harvest period.Under the common effect of the above factors, the strong fundamental fundamentals of core companies will be expected to continue.Investment suggestions: With the background of the US interest rate hike entering the later period and the border are expected to gradually enter the interest rate cut channel, the valuation center of the SaaS industry is expected to continue to rise.Under the strong fundamental support of the core targets of A shares and Hong Kong stocks, the value is expected to usher in return. It is recommended to focus on: A shares: UFIDA, Jinshan Office, (), (), Zhiyuan Interconnection, (), (), etc.Hong Kong stocks: Kingdee International, Beisen Holdings, Meitu Company, etc.Risk reminder: The pace of interest rate cuts in the United States is lower than expected, downstream demand repair rhythm is not as good as expected, and industry competition has intensified.


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